After a weekend
of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the
double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.
First, Yevgeny
Prigozhin declares he's ready to "go all the way" in his mutiny
against the Russian military. Then he makes a sudden U-turn and orders his
Wagner fighters back to base.
In a TV address,
President Vladimir Putin declares the rebellion "a criminal adventure… a
grievous crime… treason… blackmail and terrorism." Yet just a few hours
later, as part of an agreement with Prigozhin, it's revealed that all criminal
charges against the Wagner leader are being dropped.
So much for
"grievous crime".
The Kremlin
leader's mixed messages have been raising eyebrows here and changing
perceptions of President Putin.
"He
definitely looks weaker," says Konstantin Remchukov, owner and
editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, which is privately owned and one of
Russia's main national dailies.
"You can't
make a public statement declaring people are criminals and then, on the same
day, at the end of the day, let your press secretary disagree with you and say
'No, those people haven't broken the criminal code.'"
Russia's former
minister for economic development, Andrei Nechaev, makes a similar point.
In a post on
social media, Mr Nechaev argues: "The law has lost all power. Even
grievous crimes won't be punished due to political expediency. In the morning,
you might be declared a traitor. In the evening, you can be forgiven and the
criminal case against you dropped.
"The
country is so clearly on the threshold of big change."
Big change? Bold
prediction. But if change is coming, might the Wagner rebellion be the trigger?
A deal may have been done and the mutiny called off. But the fact the uprising
happened on Mr Putin's watch is embarrassing for the president, who is also
commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces.
And keep in
mind: Mr Putin's current presidential term runs out next year.
"All elite
groups will now begin to think about the 2024 presidential election,"
predicts Mr Remchukov. "They will ask themselves whether they should rely
on Vladimir Putin, as they have been doing until this military coup.
"Or should
they think about someone new, who is capable of dealing with problems in a more
contemporary manner?"
"Someone
new" for the presidency is not something you normally hear the Russian
elite discussing openly. That doesn't mean a change of guard in the Kremlin is
imminent. If there's one thing Vladimir Putin has perfected after 23 years in
power, it is the art of political survival.
But his decision
last year to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered widespread
instability within his own country: everything from economic problems to drone
attacks on Russian regions, from shelling of Russian border areas near Ukraine
to cross-border incursions into Russia by saboteur groups, and now an armed
uprising by Wagner.
All of this
ratchets up the pressure on the Kremlin leader.
Don't expect
President Putin to concede that he got things wrong, though. Admitting mistakes
and miscalculations is not his style.
So what will be
the Russian president's next move? A clue, perhaps, came in the latest edition
of Russian State TV's flagship Sunday night news show. Reporting on the Wagner
uprising, the presenter played an extract from an old Putin interview.
"Are you able to forgive?"
"Yes. But not everything."
"What can't you forgive?"
"Treachery."
I wonder if Yevgeny Prigozhin was watching.
By Steve Rosenberg || Russia Editor, Moscow
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